Metahac Labs · Research Division
Research &
Intelligence
Exploring crime patterns, predictive systems, and real-world intelligence through data analysis, fieldwork, and experimental modelling.
500
Incident Records
17
Sub-Counties
0.891
Model AUC
Featured Research
A structured analysis of spatial and temporal crime patterns across 17 Nairobi sub-counties, integrating GBM sigmoid modelling, field intelligence, and statistical analysis. The VMIP framework achieves an AUC of 0.891 and produces per-zone P(intent) scores for predictive law enforcement resource allocation.
Nairobi 2025
GBM Model
500 Records
P(intent) Sigmoid
17 Sub-Counties
Data & Experiments
Predictive Engine · Active · 2025
VexAlert Predictive Intelligence Platform
A full-stack crime probability scoring engine built on the VMIP-2025 Nairobi dataset. Applies a GBM Sigmoid model to generate per-zone P(intent) scores, live alerts, 7-day forecasts, and evidence-based intervention recommendations across 17 sub-counties.
GBM Sigmoid
AUC 0.891
17 Sub-Counties
6 Modules
P(intent) Scores
0.891
AUC-ROC
88.2%
Accuracy
0.87
Top P(intent)
Threat Probability
P(intent) per zone
Live Alert Feed
12 active alerts
7-Day Forecast
GBM projection
Offender Profiler
84% male · weapons
Model Performance
ROC · F1 · AUC
Interventions
8 recommendations
P(intent) Score Preview — Top 5 Critical Zones
Crime Intelligence Dashboard · Active · 2025
VMIP Crime Analysis Dashboard
An interactive intelligence dashboard visualising all 500 VMIP-2025 incident records across Nairobi's 17 sub-counties. Features a live Leaflet hotspot map, crime trend charts, time-of-day distributions, and a built-in report generation engine for sub-county intelligence briefs.
500 Records
17 Sub-Counties
Leaflet Map
Chart.js
Report Engine
500
Incidents
247
Violent
154
Arrests
Overview Dashboard
KPIs & trend charts
Hotspot Map
17 zones · Leaflet
Crime Trends
Monthly & type analysis
Report Engine
Sub-county briefs
Key Findings from VMIP-2025 Dataset
Starehe
Highest risk sub-county · 35 incidents
Carjacking
Top crime type · 53 incidents (10.6%)
22:00
Peak crime hour · 158 night cases
84%
Male offender rate · 420 of 500
November
Peak month · 53 incidents recorded
35.4%
Arrest rate · 154 arrests made
Analysis
Temporal Risk Patterns
Time-of-day and monthly crime peak analysis. Night window (22:00–06:00) accounts for 31.6% of all 2025 incidents across Nairobi.
Time SeriesNight Peak
Profiling
Offender Profile Classifier
Behavioural profiling from 500 incidents — gender (84% male), weapon use, recidivism, and time-of-offence pattern classification.
84% MaleWeapons
Field Intelligence
Field Note · High Risk
Dandora Observations
Street-level analysis of movement, density, and opportunity structures in Dandora. Gang activity and drug offences are the dominant patterns in Embakasi North (34 incidents, P=0.84).
P=0.84Gang Activity
Field Note · High Risk
Eastleigh Dynamics
Crime patterns shaped by trade density, informal systems, and transient population flow. Fraud and robbery concentrate in commercial corridors around Kamukunji.
KamukunjiTrade Zone
Field Note · Moderate
Westlands Night Economy
Commercial district observations at night — homicide risk elevated post-22:00. Business corridor patterns and security gap analysis in the highest-income crime zone.
WestlandsP=0.62
Methods & Frameworks
Statistical Model
Logistic Regression Baseline
Framework for estimating crime probability using structured variables — sub-county, time of day, weapon type, and offender gender. Baseline AUC 0.74 vs GBM 0.891.
Data Framework
Community Intelligence Systems
Integrating structured community reports with quantitative models. Protocol for converting qualitative field observations into model-ready variables.
Modelling Framework
VMIP GBM Sigmoid Pipeline
End-to-end pipeline: data ingestion → feature engineering → GBM training → sigmoid transform → P(intent) score generation → alert thresholding. AUC 0.891 achieved.
VexAlert
Predictive Intelligence Platform
Live
VMIP GBM · AUC 0.891
Nairobi, Kenya · 17 Sub-Counties
--:--:--
P(intent) Sigmoid Index — All Sub-Counties
Total Incidents
500
Nairobi 2025
Avg P(intent)
0.693
Across 17 zones
Critical Zones
5
P(intent) above 0.80
Model AUC
0.891
GBM Sigmoid
Peak Risk Hour
22:00
Night window, 158 cases
Arrest Rate
35.4%
154 of 500 cases
Threat Probability Index
Sigmoid P(intent) scores from VMIP GBM model — higher scores indicate elevated crime likelihood
5 Critical Zones
17 Sub-Counties
P(intent) Score by Sub-County
Sigmoid output — all 17 zones
Risk Zone Distribution
Classification by P(intent) threshold
Monthly Average P(intent) Trend — 2025
Aggregated threat probability across all sub-counties
Live Predictive Alert Feed
Real-time incident predictions ranked by confidence score and severity
12 Active Alerts
Severity Breakdown
Summary
Average Confidence
87%
Critical (>90%)
3 alerts
High (75–90%)
5 alerts
Moderate (60–75%)
4 alerts
7-Day Predictive Risk Forecast
Projected incident probability per zone over the next 7 days using GBM forward projection
GBM Projection
Projected Daily Incident Volume — Next 7 Days
Stacked by risk zone classification
7-Day Risk Forecast by Sub-County
P(incident) projection and estimated incidents
Monthly Risk Heatmap — 2025
Incident density by week, January to December
Low
High
Offender Profile Classifier
Statistical profiling derived from 500 VMIP-2025 incident records
500 Records
Offender Gender Distribution
Weapon Classification
Time-of-Offence Pattern
Offender Typology — Observed vs Model Predicted
Radar comparison of key behavioural dimensions
Model Performance Metrics
VMIP GBM Sigmoid v2.1 — evaluated on held-out test set (20% split, n=100)
AUC 0.891
88.2%
Accuracy
Correct predictions / total
84.7%
Precision
True pos. / predicted pos.
79.3%
Recall
True pos. / actual pos.
81.9%
F1 Score
Harmonic mean P/R
0.891
AUC-ROC
Discrimination ability
0.35
Log Loss
Probabilistic calibration
ROC Curve
VMIP GBM vs. random baseline (AUC = 0.891)
Feature Importance
Top 10 predictors — GBM gain scores
Confusion Matrix
Test set classification results (n=100)
Intervention Recommendations
Evidence-based policing actions derived from VMIP-2025 analysis, prioritised by impact and urgency
8 Recommendations
Estimated Crime Reduction by Intervention
Projected % reduction if implemented
Recommended Patrol Unit Allocation
Top 8 sub-counties by P(intent) score
LIVE
· VMIP INTELLIGENCE · METAHAC LABS
NAIROBI, KE
Dashboard
Total Incidents
500
2025 full year
Violent Crimes
247
49.4% of total
Arrests Made
154
35.4% arrest rate
Under Investigation
168
33.6% of cases
Male Offenders
84%
420 / 500 cases
01Overview
VMIP-2025 · 500 RECORDS
Top Sub-Counties by Incident Count
Crime Category Breakdown
Monthly Incident Trend — 2025
Starehe
Highest crime sub-county (35)
Carjacking
Top crime type (53 cases)
Night
Peak time window (158 cases)
November
Peak month (53 incidents)
02Crime Hotspot Map
17 SUB-COUNTIES PLOTTED
All Types
Violent
Property/Theft
Drug-Related
Fraud
Hotspot Intelligence Table
| Sub-County | Top Crime Type | Incidents | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starehe | Handling Stolen Goods | 35 | HIGH |
| Makadara | Offensive Weapon Possession | 34 | HIGH |
| Embakasi North | Carjacking | 34 | HIGH |
| Kasarani | Offensive Weapon Possession | 33 | HIGH |
| Ruaraka | Breaking & Entering | 33 | HIGH |
| Embakasi South | Handling Stolen Goods | 31 | MEDIUM |
| Dagoretti North | Handling Stolen Goods | 31 | MEDIUM |
| Embakasi East | Assault Causing Bodily Harm | 30 | MEDIUM |
| Embakasi Central | Breaking & Entering | 29 | MEDIUM |
| Embakasi West | Drug Trafficking/Possession | 29 | MEDIUM |
| Dagoretti South | Breaking & Entering | 28 | MEDIUM |
| Kibra | Carjacking | 28 | MEDIUM |
| Westlands | Murder / Homicide | 27 | MEDIUM |
| Mathare | Breaking & Entering | 27 | MEDIUM |
| Langata | Carjacking | 25 | LOWER |
| Roysambu | Drug Trafficking/Possession | 23 | LOWER |
| Kamukunji | Carjacking | 23 | LOWER |
03Crime Trends & Analytics
2025 FULL YEAR
Monthly Volume — Total vs Violent
Time-of-Day Distribution
Offender Gender Split
Crime Type by Sub-County — Top 6
04Generate Intelligence Report
VMIP REPORTING ENGINE
Report Configuration
Report Preview
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